Dr. Brian Carlson, head of the Global Security Team of the Think Tank at the Center for Security Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, answered questions of journalists from Kyrgyzstan about the prospects for increase of Chinese influence in Central Asia.

According to him, due to military operations in Ukraine, Russia is noticeably losing its stable position in the Central Asian region.

«For example, during the conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Russia was asked to ensure stability and security here. But reality showed that Moscow was unable to do this because it was involved in the war with Ukraine. This means that China has an opportunity to expand its presence in the region. For example, during his trip to the SCO meeting, Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Kazakhstan and declared that he supported the independence and territorial integrity of the republic. He made the same statement with regard to the Kyrgyz Republic. This has led certain circles to believe that China guarantees security. In the short term, China’s plans will be more clearly defined,» the analyst emphasized.

Answering journalists’ questions, he said that there is a kind of gentlemen’s agreement between Russia and China on the division of labor, according to which the Russian Federation is responsible for security, and China — for the economy.

«Now we see that China is increasing its investments in the region, and Russia is not coping with its obligations to ensure security. The PRC can occupy this niche as well. In the near future, these two states will continue to maintain cooperation and it will spread to the countries of Central Asia. But all this comes with the risk that the Russian Federation will become increasingly dependent on China,» Brian Carlson said.

There are many areas where some tension between China and Russia in Central Asia may arise. But meanwhile, these states value their partnership. The Russian Federation is isolated from the West both economically and diplomatically, and today China is the way of life for Russia. Official Beijing also needs Moscow’s support, accepting it as its ally against the United States.

Brian Carlson

He also noted that if China helps Russia with weapons, then secondary sanctions will be imposed on it, and China is unlikely to take such a chance.

Answering a question about possible secondary sanctions against Kyrgyzstan due to the re-export of goods to the Russian Federation, the expert said: there is no evidence that such trade operations are being carried out. He also added that the weakening of Russia’s position in the region allows the U.S. to play a more significant role.