Border conflict could be attempt to put pressure on Kyrgyzstan - Andrey Grozin
An expert Andrey Grozin commented to Regnum on the latest conflict at the Kyrgyz-Tajik border.
He believes that this confrontation could be an attempt to put pressure on the leadership of the Kyrgyz Republic in order to «move off dead point the negotiations with Bishkek and force them to reconsider the policy of blocking commodity flows on which Tajikistan depends.»
Andrey Grozin noted that the border guards of Tajikistan were involved, and not the army units.
«This is important and interesting in the context of the use of mortars, which are usually not available to border guards. Apparently, we are dealing with an increase in the fire potential of the Tajik border units, although this is contrary to international practice,» he stressed.
According to the expert, this is not a widespread practice — each country arms the guards of its borders in its own way, but as a rule, they only have light small arms at their disposal.
This is explained by the fact that border guards should not have the potential that, when in contact with the security forces of the opposite state, can generate the likelihood of a serious conflict.
Andrey Grozin
As an example, he named the relationship between the border guards of China and India.
«Look how the Chinese and Indians deal with each other. The border guards of the two countries beat each other with sticks, stones and everything that comes to hand. But not mortars. This is not because Beijing does not have the money to equip its border guards in Tibet with mortars and grenade launchers. They can give them anything, but they don’t do it not to increase the level of a possible conflict,» the analyst noted.
He recalled that «the use of mortars by Tajikistan, which belong to light artillery, for the first time was about 4-5 years ago.» Then it was perceived not as an ordinary event, but as a message.
«Tajikistan is not afraid of conflict and is even partially ready for it. This is a demonstratory action. When another major conflict broke out between the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Tajikistan in April 2021, it was clear that Dushanbe had prepared heavy equipment in advance. It is impossible to quickly drive the tanks that were visible from the territory of Kyrgyzstan. They need to be loaded, transported, demothballed, fueled, prepared, and so on. The well-coordinated work of the crews is important. This is preliminary work that takes time,» Andrey Grozin added.
In his opinion, the conclusion follows from what is happening that «the equipment was prepared, Tajikistan was preparing for a conflict.»
«I am far from coming down on Dushanbe and claiming that they are openly provoking a conflict with the Kyrgyz Republic. But, returning to the issue of arbitrariness, it should be noted that there is less outrage and stupidity in the army of the Republic of Tajikistan than in Kyrgyzstan,» the Russian expert said.
He believes that the Dushanbe regime is authoritarian, tough, and every military man understands that he will not be patted on the head for actions that can be interpreted in the center as arbitrariness that jeopardizes national security — one can lose his shoulder strap easily and quickly. «At the same time, it is impossible to explain what is happening only by the lack of discipline and order in the army of the Kyrgyz Republic. Such things can explain the skirmishes between separate groups of border guards or their conflicts with citizens of the neighboring state,» Andrey Grozin said.
He is of the opinion that the conflict on the border of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with the use of light artillery «could not have happened without the knowledge of the leadership of the Republic of Tajikistan.»
«I am not saying that Tajikistan is openly provoking a conflict with Kyrgyzstan. But previous incidents show that one of the parties was preparing in advance for some of these clashes. Perhaps, it was a go-ahead «from above» in the upper echelons of the power block of the Republic of Tajikistan. Perhaps, this was done in order to move the negotiations with Bishkek off the ground and force a review of the policy of blocking the flow of goods on which the neighboring country depends,» the expert suggested.
Answering a question who might be interested in the conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, he said that «there are interested persons both in Dushanbe and in Bishkek.»
«The two republics have their own «war parties» and sensible people. There are specialists who understand that it is contraindicated for the Republic of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic to fight each other. Neither side can afford war — it’s too expensive. Peace talks in this case are cheaper and more efficient,» Andrey Grozin summed up.
On January 27 at 6.15 p.m., the border guards of Tajikistan blocked a section of Batken — Isfana road in Tort-Kocho area of Batken region. The border units of Kyrgyzstan, deployed on this section of the border in Batken region, switched to an enhanced mode of service. The both sides exchanged fire. The Tajik military used mortars and grenade launchers.
At night, the parties agreed on a complete ceasefire, withdrawal of additional forces and equipment from the border, opening of Batken — Isfana road for traffic and joint patrolling of border areas in order to prevent conflicts.
