Central Asia to enter chronic phase of water shortage by 2028
According to various estimates, Central Asia will enter a chronic phase of water shortage by 2028. Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asia Sector at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said during the roundtable discussion «Climate Change and Water Use Issues in Central Asia.»
According to Pritchin, water scarcity is one of the most urgent and pressing issues on the current agenda.
«The water sector is in a critical state. Several key issues contribute to this situation. First and foremost is climate change. Global warming directly affects glacier reserves, which are the dominant source of fresh, clean water in Central Asia. Consequently, the reduction of glacier reserves impacts river flows in the long term,» Stanislav Pritchin said.
He also noted that population growth is another contributing factor. The region is developing rapidly, the demographic situation is dynamic. The leader in absolute terms is Uzbekistan: from 1991 to 2025, its population grew from 22 million to 37.5 million.
«Overall, the region’s population is approaching 80 million. Therefore, the consumption of clean water by the population alone is already a factor of additional pressure on the shrinking water industry. At the same time, the region’s water infrastructure is aging,» Stanislav Pritchin added.
According to various estimates, up to 50 percent of water intended for irrigation is lost during transportation to fields due to inefficient water management.
Stanislav Pritchin
Another factor, according to him, is the unadapted practice of regional management.
«There is no serious instrument, an interstate institution with sufficient powers. Yes, there are regional, bilateral and trilateral negotiations on water sharing, but in general, the situation is difficult in terms of policy for resolving water issues. There are no institutions that would deal not only with distribution, but also with the development of a common strategy. We are seeing the first attempts — there is a decision on Kambar-Ata that three regional players are building the project together. This is a positive step, but it is not sufficient,» Stanislav Pritchin emphasized.
